If the series of unfortunate events in Syria leads to disintegration, Turkey will face risks such as increased separatist movements at home, border threats from armed groups, disruption of national security, and reduced geopolitical influence in the region.
The developments in Syria in recent years, from the onset of the internal crisis to the emergence of separate spheres of influence among various regional and international actors, have fueled growing whispers about the country’s potential disintegration. This trend, which has now taken on an air of reality, has not only darkened Syria’s future but also poses a serious and dangerous threat to its neighbors, particularly Turkey.
The Fragmentation of Syria: A Reality Taking Shape
More than a decade after the start of Syria’s civil war, the country’s governance structure has undergone extensive and fundamental changes. Control over territories remains unstable, divided among the central government, Kurdish groups (especially in the north and northeast), Turkish-backed opposition forces, and even terrorist organizations. In such conditions, the emergence of quasi-autonomous entities or local administrations, particularly in Kurdish-majority areas, has become a serious and dangerous issue, effectively laying the groundwork for Syria’s disintegration.
Why Should Turkey Be Concerned?
Turkey, with its large Kurdish population in the east and southeast, is deeply sensitive to the formation of an autonomous Kurdish region in northern Syria. The bitter experience of Iraq and the establishment of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is now repeating itself in Syria, this time with overt U.S. support for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), whose backbone is the YPG, a group Turkey considers a branch of the PKK.
Thus, if the Kurdish autonomy project in Syria leads to the country’s fragmentation, Turkey will face strategic threats, the most significant of which include: Increased separatist movements within Turkey, border threats from armed Kurdish groups, disruptions to national security and a decline in Ankara’s geopolitical influence in the region, and strategic ties with NATO allies in the event of direct military intervention.
Turkey’s Possible Paths Forward
Given these challenges, Turkey now faces two difficult options: Continuing limited military operations in northern Syria to establish a buffer zone and curb Kurdish expansion, or engaging in dialogue with Damascus to strengthen Syria’s central government as a means of countering separatist projects
In either case, Turkey must strike a balance between domestic considerations, international relations, and security imperatives, a task made exceedingly difficult by the region’s current geopolitical climate. The situation is so complex and volatile that Ankara will face unpredictable challenges regardless of the path it chooses. Moreover, Turkey must also factor in the Zionist regime, further complicating the equation.
Clashes in Suwayda Province
Meanwhile, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned of concerning movements across Syria, stating that certain groups are exploiting recent unrest to push for the country’s disintegration. Following clashes between Syrian tribes and the Druze community in Suwayda Province (southern Syria), Fidan reported monitoring activities in Syria’s northern, southern, eastern, and western regions.
He stated: “As Turkey, we were obligated to warn against the danger of Syria’s fragmentation, and we did so because we support preserving Syria’s unity and territorial integrity. Maintaining stability, order, and unity in neighboring countries is a priority for Ankara.”
Fidan appeared visibly anxious, a reaction likely driven by fears that Syria’s fragmentation could set a precedent for Turkey’s disintegration. His previously overconfident posturing (from his time as Turkey’s intelligence chief) has now been replaced by palpable dread.
Another critical issue is the recent clashes in Suwayda Province. Although geographically distant from Turkey (located near Jordan in southern Syria), its developments carry indirect consequences for Ankara. Turkey is wary of the separatist precedent in Syria, as a similar scenario could unfold in northern Syria with the Kurds, threatening its southern border security.
Conclusion
Given all these factors, Syria’s fragmentation is no longer a hypothetical scenario. It is a process that, if left unchecked, could trigger a domino effect of instability across the region. As a key regional player and Syria’s neighbor, Turkey is more vulnerable than most to these unpredictable developments. The time has come for Ankara to make decisive choices that will shape the region’s future.